The Market Has Moved Off the Floor: Cost and Prices Are Now Higher

Global steel pricing has shifted from late-2025 stability into a firmer cost-recovery phase. HRC benchmarks have lifted off their lows, scrap is rising, aluminium remains strong, and nickel and zinc have stabilised or rebounded.

At the same time, Middle East conflict is increasing energy, freight, insurance and routing risk, with some exporters shifting from CFR to FOB terms to manage uncertainty.

The implication is straightforward: forward market conditions and indicators all point to increasing prices.

What's Changed

• Steel pricing has moved off the bottom, with mill increases flowing through March–April

• Input costs are rising across scrap, aluminium, nickel and zinc

• Freight, fuel and insurance costs have lifted due to ongoing supply chain disruption

• Supplier behaviour has shifted, with less cost absorption and more FOB pricing

• Supplier feedback suggests further upward pressure over the coming months

• Pricing remains below recent peak levels, continuing to support project activity

Expected Price Movements (Near Term)

• Aluminium: 8–12% 

• Stainless: 5–6% 

• Fasteners: ~4% 

• Carbon Steel: 4–9%

(Based on recent supplier discussions and market indicators)

Market Context

Supplier feedback from Taiwan and Korea indicates that raw material and energy cost increases from upstream mills (e.g. China Steel Corporation, POSCO) have been building since late 2025.

These were initially absorbed due to weak demand and competitive pressure from Chinese exports. As cost pressures have continued — particularly energy and freight — suppliers are now passing these increases through to export markets.

This aligns with broader market signals: firmer HRC pricing, rising scrap, strong aluminium, and recovering nickel and zinc.

While global overcapacity remains, the direction of landed cost is now clearly upward.

What This Means for Customers

Forward market indicators point to further price increases.

Replenishment orders being placed with offshore mills today — and futures market signals — indicate higher replacement costs ahead.

Customers with upcoming projects should:

• Review requirements now 

• Secure pricing where possible 

• Engage early on supply timing 

Bringing purchasing forward may reduce exposure to known cost increases, improve project certainty, and support delivery planning.